ABCI analytical perspective. Milestones and structural directions below are research propositions, not official forecasts or commitments.
Why It Matters
Reliable energy supports production, services and household welfare. Transformation should be assessed across supply, network efficiency and demand, with environmental commitments distinguished from installed capacity and delivered performance.
Where Iraq Stands
IMF context places electricity distribution losses at about 55% in 2024. The solar target is 12,000 MW by 2030, while gas self-sufficiency is an official direction. Iraq’s NDC commitment is 22% below business as usual by 2035: 5% unconditional and 17% conditional.
The Structural Gap
Generation targets alone cannot establish reliable supply. Network losses, metering, maintenance, gas availability, financing and delivery capacity need to be assessed together; conditional climate commitments must retain their financing and implementation qualifications.
What Needs to Change
Evaluate network rehabilitation, loss measurement, maintenance, efficient demand and commercially viable renewable integration. Compare announced capacity with commissioned and available capacity, and identify implementation responsibilities.
2030 Milestone
By 2030, assess delivery against official solar ambitions alongside network efficiency and supply reliability. Treat progress toward gas self-sufficiency as evidence to examine, not a guaranteed result.
Proposed measurement protocol
- Measure and definition
- Distribution losses as energy received minus billed/sold energy divided by energy received, with technical and commercial components distinguished where possible.
- Collection and comparison
- Confirm the source definition, network boundary and period. Use metering and billing records alongside availability and collection measures.
- Current limits
- The national 2024 estimate is not a feeder-level baseline. Meter coverage and definition changes limit comparisons; no numerical 2035 reduction scenario is published.
2035 Direction
More reliable supply and lower technical and commercial network losses, assessed against consistent energy and billing records. No numerical 2035 loss scenario is published without reviewed assumptions.