ABCI Iraq 2035
Developing competitive local production where Iraq has market scale, resources or export potential.
ABCI analytical perspective. Milestones and structural directions below are research propositions, not official forecasts or commitments.
Local production creates lasting value when it is competitive, reliable and connected to demand. Industrial development should be assessed through productivity and viable supply chains rather than capacity announcements alone.
Manufacturing value added represented 2.8% of GDP in 2024. R&D expenditure of 0.04% of GDP refers to 2021 and is a historical baseline only. The figures should not be read as a current measure of innovation capacity.
Import substitution alone does not establish competitiveness. The research gap is understanding unit costs, reliability, standards, technology and customer demand, and separating viable domestic production from activity dependent on indefinite protection.
Assess energy reliability, logistics, quality certification, supplier development, technical skills and access to working capital. Prioritize production models with demonstrable market demand and realistic paths to improved productivity.
By 2030, look for operating production, improving productivity and credible domestic or export sales in selected value chains. Measure commissioning and utilization separately from planned capacity.
Competitive manufacturing and stronger local value chains supported by productivity, quality and dependable inputs. This qualitative direction does not set an unmodelled numerical manufacturing share for 2035.
2024
2021
Historical figure only; not a current baseline.
2035
ABCI Research Direction — not an official government target.
Qualitative research proposition. No quantified 2035 scenario is published until a consistent baseline, assumptions and reproducible calculation have been reviewed. See the pillar measurement plan for definitions, collection needs and limitations.
SOURCE REGISTER
The register identifies each linked publication or data series. Indicator cards retain measurement periods and definitions. An absent publication or check date is shown explicitly; the edition date is not a substitute.
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Published: date not established
Independent check: not reverified in this revision
ABCI · BAGHDAD, IRAQ
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